How the Bermuda Race is Won

A crossing plan depends on the forecast current, the position of meanders and rings, and the resulting progress toward Bermuda. The race’s navigator resources describe how these features change. A climatological average gives context, but a race plan needs current conditions.

The fleet’s crossing longitude at 37°N shifts between editions, including among boats with better corrected results. To assess an individual route, we also need the current analysis available when the crew chose it.

In 2024, Newport Bermuda became the first ocean race to use forecast-time correction factors (F‑TCF). Before the start, each boat was optimally routed through the expected wind and current. Its predicted elapsed time set its allowance, accounting for how the forecast conditions affected that boat. Crews still had to choose and sail their own routes.

For every timestamped leg we subtract HYCOM’s surface-current displacement from the tracker’s ground displacement. The result is an estimated distance through the water; projecting the same current along the leg estimates its contribution to progress. This calculation separates displacements without inferring boat speed through water.

Estimated assistance in 2024 had a median of n/a nm. The middle 80% of boats spanned n/a to n/a nm. Among the controlled routes, a modest detour west before the crossing reduced the estimated distance through water by n/a nm compared with the rhumb line, after accounting for the extra ground distance.

Greater current assistance had little association with a better corrected place after centering boats within year and class and controlling for distance sailed (partial r = n/a, n/a, n = n/a). Routing must account for the direction of the current and the wind and distance costs of reaching it.

Within the same edition and published class, extra distance has a small association with a worse corrected place: r = n/a across n/a boat-races; n/a after shuffling places only within class and year.

The small effect leaves room for faster routes through favorable wind or current, even when they are longer. Across these races, however, boats that sailed extra distance tended to retain a slight disadvantage after rating correction.

Every tracked edition includes doublehanded racing: 99 finishers in total, with 13 to 21 boats per race. We compared their distance sailed with that of fully crewed boats to look for a difference associated with the smaller crew.

The doublehanded median is 0.4 nautical miles shorter than the edition median; the fully crewed median is zero. The difference is negligible and statistically unpersuasive (n/a). The fleets contain different boats and ratings, so this comparison cannot establish equal performance. It shows little difference in distance sailed.

Across 3,096 observations of boats at 39°, 37°, or 35°N, a crossing farther from the class median had a weak association with a worse finish within that class (r = n/a; n/a in a 10,000-draw permutation confined to class, year, and latitude). The effect is tiny and gives little support for choosing a route solely by its proximity to the fleet. A route with more separation still needs a wind or current advantage to justify its cost.

The crossing longitudes narrow toward Bermuda as boats converge on the same finish. The larger separations occur farther north, where crews have more room to trade distance against wind and current.